By: Professor Dato Dr Ahmad Ibrahim
COP28 in Dubai produced mixed reactions. For the first time, there was the historic mention of “transitioning away from fossil fuels”. Many felt cheated. The Small Island Developing States (SIDS) criticized the decision as not going far enough. Bolivia chastised developed countries “who talked a lot about keeping the 1.5 °C limit alive but they “have plans to expand fossil fuels until 2050, exposing their hypocrisy and called this “carbon colonialism.”
As the 6th Report of the IPCC reveals, there is only 500 gigatons of carbon budget left. With current emission trends, this will be exhausted in this decade. Developed countries, which account for 19% of the world population in 2019 contributes 68% to historical CO2 emissions. They remain hesitant to act. This is the real challenge. COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, is not expected to make much progress moving the needle. The new US administration which once declared climate change as hoax is not about to shift its stand.Notwithstanding, COP29 will likely see more pressure on countries to ramp up their NDCs. The discussion will shift from stocktaking to holding nations accountable for delivering concrete actions.
COP29 will continue with calls for a clearer global commitment to phase out fossil fuels. Brazil may push for a stronger focus on renewable energy. Discussions may include financing mechanisms to support a just transition, along with stronger agreements on fossil fuel subsidies and carbon pricing. On the Loss and Damage Fund, COP 29 will seek clarifications on financing, how the funds will be disbursed, and which countries will be eligible for support. This will generate debates on innovative financial mechanisms including taxes on fossil fuel profits or international aviation, and ensuring equitable access for the most vulnerable countries.
COP29 will push for more concrete progress on the promised $100 billion climate finance goal. Countries will be held to greater scrutiny on delivering pledged funds. Moreover, a focus on private sector engagement and blended finance models to scale up climate financing for both mitigation and adaptation will likely feature prominently.
Adaptation will take centre stage at COP29, especially as the impacts of climate change intensify. The conference will likely focus on scaling up adaptation financing, especially for least-developed countries and small island states. Discussions may also include nature-based solutions, climate-resilient infrastructure, and the integration of traditional knowledge into adaptation strategies.
At COP29, the focus will shift toward greater accountability for private sector commitments. There will be calls for transparent reporting, carbon accounting standards, and clearer guidelines for corporate net-zero claims. Non-state actors will face increasing pressure to move from pledges to tangible climate actions. COP28 laid the groundwork for critical developments. COP29 will likely build on these outcomes by focusing on implementation, ensuring that the promises made at COP28 translate into real, measurable actions. Expectations for COP29 will centre on closing the gap between rhetoric and reality. Brazil may also bring issues such as biodiversity, Amazon forest protection, and indigenous rights to the forefront.
Malaysia contributes about 0.7% to global GHG emissions. Most are from the use of fossil fuel in power generation, transport, and industry. Oil and gas account for a major share of the country’s revenue. Phasing out of fossil fuel will have economic implications. Efforts are under way to transition away towards renewables. Solar and Hydro account for a major share of our renewables. There are efforts to include hydrogen and biomass. But the ecosystem, especially regulations are not conducive. Hydro faces potential problems of reduced water flow because of global warming. Whilst solar involves dependence on external source of the panels, especially from China. Biomass has potential, but progress is slow.
Rising temperatures and extreme weather conditions have exacted costly repercussions for the economy. Many parts of the country, especially the low lying areas, are under threat of sea-level rise. Our plantation crops which bring in substantial income to the country are threatened by climate change through water-stress, diseases and other yield-lowering consequences. Mitigation will prove to be very challenging. Adaptation is suggested as a major focus. The announcement to develop our National Adaptation Plan is lauded.
The author is an Associate Fellow at the Ungku Aziz Centre for Development Studies (UAC), Universiti Malaya, and may be reached at uacds@um.edu.my
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